Shock warning on sea levels
THE COASTAL map of the Westcountry could be dramatically
redrawn by the waves if expert predictions of a rise of up to
-
four metres in sea level become a reality.
It would go far beyond previous expectations that remote and
sparsely populated coastal areas would be beyond salvation, and
mean that large swathes of towns and even cities could be
swallowed up by the English Channel over the next century.
It comes as a senior Government adviser has warned that the
country should prepare for a temperature increase of 4C (7F) –
well above the 2C level which scientists regard as critical. It
would mean that some of the best-known features of Devon and
Cornwall could be lost for good, including flora, bird life,
butterflies and even the region's treasured beaches.
Phil Dyke, coastal property manager for the National Trust,
said alarm bells rang when NASA scientist James Hansen warned
that sea levels could rise by four metres over the next
century, rather than the widely accepted figure of one metre.
The climatologist has been widely quoted as saying that sea
levels will rise by "at least a couple" of metres this century,
with the largest estimate at four to five metres.
He says the lower figure, agreed by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), fails to properly consider the
contribution made by the melting of ice sheets.
Mr Dyke said such an increase would have "major
implications" for the Westcountry. He said: "When NASA start
saying that sort of stuff, you start thinking 'OK, there's
probably something in this'."
He said a gauge at Newlyn, used for recording the rise in
sea level for the whole country, had recorded an increase of
20cm over the past 60 years. He said the trend of a rise of
three to four centimetres each year was likely to continue for
the next two decades – after which it would start to increase
"exponentially" because the ice would respond to the increase
in the change in temperature.
On top of that, an increase of ferocious storms would have
dire consequences, with increasingly powerful waves lashing
ever closer onto the shore.
The National Trust, which owns a number of coastal areas
around Devon and Cornwall, has carried out a range of studies
over recent years.
At St Michael's Mount, a study of historical records shows
the window of low tide at which people can walk across the
causeway to the island has shrunk from three hours two
centuries ago to two hours today. Based on current models, the
time slot will be down to an hour in 40 years' time.
And at Mullion, the trust has had to make a tough decision
on how best to defend the historic harbour. Instead of spending
£6 million on a granite reef with a life span of just 25 years,
it has opted to repair storm damage this time, but next time to
retreat to a logical point and sacrifice the rest – a pattern
which will mean there could be no harbour in 60 years.
Mr Dyke said: "As an organisation we aren't really into
change. Our general brief is conservation, and we are used to
believing we can hang on to things forever – but we have to
accept the reality of the situation."
He said a four-metre sea level rise would leave coastal
communities – including estuary cities such as Plymouth –
vulnerable. It would mean tough decisions would have to be made
about where to spend money on defending communities.
He said: "If there is a rise of four metres, us worrying
about Mullion harbour will be totally insignificant. It would
have serious implications."
He said the sector was now awaiting a report of the UK
Climate Impact Partnership, which is being led by the
Exeter-based Met Office. When it is published in November, it
will provide a more detailed and comprehensive picture on a
range of climate change areas, including sea level rise.
Mr Dyke speculated that comments by Professor Robert Watson,
chief scientiofic adviser to the Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs, that the UK should prepare for a 4C
increase in climate could be paving the way for radical new
thinking on the issue.
But Ben Johnstone, South West regional flood risk manager
for the Environment Agency, was sceptical about the claim. He
said climate change and rising sea levels were "key
priorities", which formed the "bedrock" or all flood risk
management decisions.
But he added: "While rising sea levels are a huge concern,
we consider a four-metre rise to be excessive."
He said the agency works on Government guidance that a
one-metre rise is likely over the next century.
"Although this is lower than Professor Hansen is saying, the
implications will be felt by everyone who lives here. It's a
serious concern and one which must not be ignored," he
said.
Yesterday, a spokesman for the Met Office said the one-metre
sea level rise estimated for the next century took into account
40cm from the Greenland ice cap and 40cm from Antarctica, as
well as 20cm from the thermal expansion of the body of water.
He said Mr Hansen's estimate was an "extreme example".
A Defra spokesman said: "Based on the evidence, it is
unlikely that changes in ice sheet flows will cause global sea
level rise by as much as four metres by 2100. However, much
more work needs to be done to fully understand the potential
impacts of ice sheet flows to increased sea levels due to
climate change."
10 Comments
by Bob Ashton, Barnstaple
Saturday, August 16 2008, 8:34PM
“Well, there's a surprise! The IPCC agrees with James Hansen. It has no choice if it is to continue to be the prime propaganda source for the political machine in keeping people in fear of the future!”
by gordon, paignton
Saturday, August 16 2008, 12:20PM
“Same old James Hansen, I fear. The climate is changing. Undeniable. Whether hysterical views contribute is doubtful, but it does ensure funding for their cause. And continued employment.”
by Pedro, Dubai
Saturday, August 16 2008, 5:32AM
“Can you believe anything that comes out of NASA.
Remember there are people even today who still do not believe that man landed on the moon. Then there is the subject of aliens and then life on Mars and so on!! This view might be just a tad unfair.
History shows us that the natural elements have changed over time and also that large parts of the UK coast line have been reclaimed by the sea. Man has never been able to tame nature and never will. As far as the subject of weather goes predictions appear to be matters of opinion.
Is this not just one opinion against another, one mans interpretation of mathmatical calculations against another. I for one will not lose too much sleep over it.
Just in case someone thinks because I dont live in Cornwall I dont care, let me tell you if the sea rose 4m then my current home in Dubai would be swept away but my home in UK would survive however it would be on its own island.”
by david glover, NSW Australia
Saturday, August 16 2008, 1:50AM
“could sealevel rises be mitigated by desalinating water using renewable energy (hotrock geothermal) andusing that water to irrigate arid and desert areas on obviously a vast scale to produce food and fuel crops?”
by Martin, Canada
Friday, August 15 2008, 10:55PM
“Philip, for a doctor you have a disappointingly unscientific outlook. Climate is not the same as weather, and to conflate them like this is entirely inappropriate. Here's an example that should be clear to you - you cannot predict that a particular smoker will die early, but you can predict that overall smokers will die earlier than non-smokers.
Also there is no evidence whatsoever that sea levels are falling, in fact they continue to rise each year. Finally the "global warming has stopped" myth overlooks the fact that climate varies on a timescale of decades rather than years, and 1998 was a particularly warm year brought about by a confluence of events (back to the one smoker versus the population again.) On average the last 10 years are the warmest on record.”
by john, cornwall
Friday, August 15 2008, 9:07PM
“living 10 miles inland, is this the only i will get a house by the sea.”
by Steve, Exeter
Friday, August 15 2008, 7:58PM
“Would this be the James Hansen who 20 years ago predicted that by 2008 we would be frying in the heat because of man made Global Warming? And the soothsayers at the Met Office consulting there sea weed and pine cones to predict the weather tomorrow and getting it wrong again. At the beginning of last year they said because of man made global warming 2007 was going to be the hottest year ever and we had to get used to it, because temperatures would continue to rise!!
So as for this extreme report i think we should relax and put another jumper on to keep warm in this blistering summer heat.!!”
by Tefal, Plymouth
Friday, August 15 2008, 7:37PM
“I would not predict a large increase in sea levels over the next hundred years but I will predict this. The almost certainty of conflict on a scale that as never been seen before. The further use of alarmingly inaccurate climate predictions by people who should know better. This will be used to fuel ever increasing taxation all to no avail. Climate change and extinction has always been and will be long after man has gone taxation or no taxation. Never in the field of human experience has so much twaddle been thrust upon a gullible public for so long, all to no effect. (With apologies to Sir Winston Churchill)”
by Dr Phillip A W Bratby, Devon
Friday, August 15 2008, 2:23PM
“Jim Hansen of NASA has been making alarmist propaganda about melting icecaps and sea level rise for over 20 years. None of it has any basis; it all comes from computer projections which have absolutely no validity. If weather cannot be forecast more than a few days ahead, how can they possibly forecast the much more complex climate 100 years ahead? In fact the gradual global warming that has occurred over the last 200 years appears to hve come to an end. Global cooling has been going on for the last few years, the sea level has started to fall and there has been an increase in anatarctic ice. It is a colder future that we should be preparing for.”
by Donald Lyven, Finchley, London
Friday, August 15 2008, 10:30AM
“The point being missed is that we have to act now to prepare for the future; yet what country is building new ports and defences for the future sea level rise rise?
Even one metre will have a big effect on the world's economy. What with oil production in decline and millions of refugees in drought hit regions as the glaciers dry up water supplies, economic strain will make it impossible to put in the defences then, which is why we must start preparing now.
Unfortunately, no government is prepared to think long term, so nothing will be done until it is too late to do anything as costs spiral.
We should be building with the resources we have availible now, not hoping the situation goes away - it won't.
Ice has no political ajenda, it just keeps on melting. Continued economic and population growth on the planet is now unsustainable, as food supplies, rainforests, and natural resources dwindle, while CO2 levels increase. We are heading blindly to utter disaster....”