Hugo Swire: The truth behind by-election result
THE Eastleigh outcome was a disappointing result for the Conservative Party, there is no doubt about it. But it must be remembered that this was a by-election and, as at all by-elections, people protested against the Government.
This is why the vote share fell for both governing parties – Conservative and Liberal Democrat. For the Liberals the share fell by 14.5 per cent and for the Conservatives 14 per cent. Unless you are a political number cruncher, these figures are of little relevance, but Eastleigh was an important by-election; it gave a gentle hint about what is happening on the political landscape.
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Hugo Swire
For example, the question for the Labour Party is why UKIP benefited, and not them. This shows the failure of Ed Miliband's claims to be a one-nation politician. This was a mid-term by-election when the two parties in Government are making some very tough decisions to fix the economy.
But Labour was not the beneficiary of the protest vote. In fact, Labour has barely improved on their rock-bottom showing in 2010, when their vote share halved.
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It's not just in Eastleigh where Labour has failed to make in-roads, just look what happened in London against Boris Johnson, in Bradford against George Galloway or in Scotland against Alex Salmond.
The winners of Eastleigh were of course UKIP, and the swing towards them came from all three parties, which indicate a large protest vote. I would dare to suggest that many people, who voted for the party, liked its sound and its fury but did not have a detailed sense of its policy platform.
Leaving the issue of EU exit aside, UKIP's inclination on the domestic front is simply to spend, spend, spend. It proposes to take 4.5 million people out of taxation altogether by establishing a flat-rate income tax with a threshold set at the minimum wage. All green taxes would be abolished, in principle, as global warming is, says UKIP, "unproven". Taxes on small businesses should be cut and Employers' National Insurance abolished. There must be no cuts to police numbers and twice as many prison places as there are now. Tuition fees should be scrapped and student grants restored. Defence spending increased. When you ask them how this is all going to be paid for we get the standard line of political rascals: Cut red tape and quangos. Mr Farage is one of those rare political dynamos that come along every now and then in politics. But he is not the party. At some point those leaning towards UKIP need to take a closer look at the lower ranks.
As Conservatives, we undoubtedly have a problem with the rise of UKIP as it splits our vote; because of Britian's electoral geography, Mr Miliband can become prime minister on the back of 35 per cent of the national vote if the right is divided. It means UKIP in effect would let in a pro-Europe party, which could even go into coalition with another pro-Europe party, The Lib Dems, which cannot be their intention.
David Cameron has said his party will not lurch to the right to counter UKIP. He is confident that in the General Election he can win back electors like those in Eastleigh by showing he's delivering for everyone who works hard and wants to get on.
Slow but steady progress in getting Britain back onto its feet.
4 Comments
by AdrianFullam
Friday, March 15 2013, 9:41AM
“Politicians have as much honesty and integrity as the population as a whole. Just because one or even a number of people lie, it doesn't mean that everyone is condemned. There are examples of good and bad from across the political spectrum. If people expect 650 "Mother Teresa" characters, I suggest a reality check.
If you went through each one of the 650+ MPS and thousands of Councillors, you would find the vast majority to be conscientious and honourable. Of course the media like to spotlight the bad boys because that sells the papers.
Cerberus - who are you anyway? Another anonymous 10-a-penny cynic! Let's hear about your indiscretions of the past and see if you are qualified to pass judgement.
We need a bigger, better pool of people to put themselves forward so we have a decent choice about who can represent us. Only the pure of heart and soul with Corinthian motives need apply. Don't be rich, but don't expect the taxpayer to improve your situation. Work for years before elections for nothing with no certainty of reward. Expose yourself and your family to media scrutiny and prepare for criticism from all sides for a lot of things beyond your control. Be ready to reapply for your job every 4-5 years through the most convoluted selection process devised.
Anybody have any idea why our politicians are not what we always hope for?
If you want to be really radical, why not thank the next politician you see for taking their time to get involved and listen to you.”
by Cerberus2010
Thursday, March 14 2013, 10:34PM
“"......promoting a liberal, democratic, meritocratic, sustainable agenda."
Not forgetting, of course, honesty and integrity.”
by AdrianFullam
Thursday, March 14 2013, 9:00PM
“The main truth behind the by-election result was that the Lib Dems have been working in Eastleigh for years and the others haven't. When it came to it, the non-stop harassment of the Lib Dems by the press was not enough to trump the residents actual experience of Lib Dem representatives they know and trust and regularly see eye to eye. Of course many who originally voted Lib Dem as a protest no longer did. But a lot of people voted positively on results and reputation - therefore a Lib Dem win.
The Tories are now trying to battle UKIP for the isolationist vote. I would hate to see a UKIP MP - I think they are the latest refuge for the closet xenophobes, people the Tories used to harbour. However if the record of their MEPS is anything to go by, two or three might prove to be an effective antidote to any further progress from them.
As for any future coalitions (if Lib Dems don't get a majority) we will pull policy in a Lib Dem direction, whether it's with a party of the left or the right or whatever. Maybe a spell with the Labour party might accustom people to the idea that the Lib Dem agenda is a positive one, not just a reaction to other philosophies - a key component of the Labour and Tories offerings. That's what I would expect as a positive Lib Dem, not interested in "getting rid" of anyone, but promoting a liberal, democratic, meritocratic, sustainable agenda.”
by PeteTorq
Thursday, March 14 2013, 12:42PM
“Perhaps this article would be more aptly named "The Truth Behind The Lies of the Eastleigh bi-election"? Mr Swire and his peers may well be desperately grappling to find some positives from their party's demise at Eastleigh and one might well predict that jumping up and down frantically pointing out that Labour didn't do well either would be the best cure for the no pun intended Tory blues! But one could also equally submit that they are merely victims of their own success,the very success that led them to number 10 in the first place,so it's any wonder that the voters of Eastleigh who historically have always voted Tory should start to feel disgruntled at the electoral lies and broken promises,you can almost here them screening into their copies of the daily mail,"but you promised to get us out of the EU and to reduce the deficit and deal with immigration and all those sick people and scroungers on the dole" The fact that they didn't lurch even more to the right and vote in the BNP oops sorry I mean Ukip maybe of some consolation and perhaps even a glimmer of hope that they are beginning to realise that the very foundation of Camerons Tory ideology is flawed,socially destructive and morally corrupt.”